The 2024 Kentucky Derby is upon us. The eyes of the gambling world will be on Churchill Downs Saturday for the 150th Run for the Roses, and as always, Kentucky Derby betting will be a gigantic spectacle.
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If you’re just getting up to speed on this year’s Derby, don’t worry. We’ve got you covered with everything you need, including key race replays and one handicapper’s Kentucky Derby picks.
Fierceness the Kentucky Derby favorite
Last year, owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher had to scratch morning line favorite Forte the morning of the Kentucky Derby. This year, those connections are back with #17 Fierceness, the early 5/2 choice.
When Fierceness is good, he’s very good. He won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and an Eclipse Award as 2023’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male. Most recently, he romped in the Florida Derby, one of the most important Kentucky Derby prep races. He’s misfired twice in his career, but if he’s on his game, he’ll be a major player.
Other Kentucky Derby contenders to consider
#2 Sierra Leone is the 3-1 second choice. He’s won a pair of important prep races this season. After winning the Risen Star at Fair Grounds (a key race, as the top five finishers are all Derby runners), he rallied to annex the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He’s trained by Chad Brown, who may be the best trainer yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
The 8-1 third choice in Kentucky Derby betting, meanwhile, is #4 Catching Freedom. After catching a series of unlucky trips, the Brad Cox trainee rallied from last to first to win the Louisiana Derby (defeating, among others, #7 Honor Marie, who finished second and also shows up in Kentucky). Cox wound up winning the 2021 Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun, who was placed first following the post-race disqualification of original winner Medina Spirit.
The Kentucky Derby has drawn a full field of 20 horses. As such, those are the only three runners below 10-1 on the morning line. If you like another runner, chances are you’re going to get a very nice price!
2024 Kentucky Derby selections
If Fierceness runs his “A race,” the battle is for second. The question is, will that materialize?
The post position draw answered that question for me. He drew an outside post that should allow him clear sailing early on as most of his primary rivals battle for position out of the gate. I think he sits outside, in the clear, and is given every chance to put forth the type of effort we know he’s capable of. For that reason, he tops my Kentucky Derby picks.
I’m against Sierra Leone, however. He’s drawn inside, which I don’t think suits him given some of the quirky tendencies he’s shown before and during previous races, and as a one-run closer, he’s going to need a lot to go right. He can win, but the morning line price hits me as an underlay.
Underneath Fierceness, I’ll rely on the top two finishers from the Louisiana Derby. Catching Freedom benefited from the last-out rider switch to Flavien Prat, one of the top jockeys in the game, and he rides back on the biggest stage possible. Honor Marie, meanwhile, has shown he loves Churchill Downs and is the “buzz horse” following a sensational drill leading up to the Derby. He’s 20-1 on the morning line, but we almost certainly won’t get that price come post time.
- 1st: #17 Fierceness
- 2nd: #4 Catching Freedom
- 3rd: #7 Honor Marie
For more on the Saturday program at Churchill Downs, check out my Kentucky Derby betting strategies and spot plays, part of our All-Access pass. I’ve got advice on how to bet on the Kentucky Derby with a $100 budget, plus analysis of several other horses I’ll be backing throughout the card.