By: Mike Briggs

Big 12 Football is headed for a transition year, with Texas and Oklahoma set to depart for the SEC in 2024. The two heavyweights will take with them much of the league’s luster and history, but there is still optimism for the conference’s immediate and long-term prospects.

This season, the Big 12 will welcome BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, giving the league an intriguing mix of established programs and up-and-comers. The conference will expand further next year, too, with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah set to join.

The new blood will garner the early-season headlines, but it won’t be all she wrote about the 2023 Big 12 football season. On the heels of TCU’s national championship appearance, the conference appears poised to crash the College Football Playoff again. While this year will be the final under the four-team format, there’s optimism on more than one Big 12 campus that this is “their year.”

Conference Champion Prediction: Texas Longhorns +115 

I’m bullish on the Longhorns to rise to the occasion in 2023, bidding farewell to the Big 12 with the conference championship trophy on their shoulders, their first since 2009. Texas features a rising star at quarterback in Quinn Ewers, an All-American receiver in Xavier Worthy, and five returning starters along the offensive line. The defense made significant strides last year and returns six starters, including 73 percent of passes defended.

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The schedule also works in the Longhorns’ favor. UT plays just five true road games and four of the projected bottom five Big 12 teams. Aside from Alabama, there’s no team on its schedule that has more collective talent. It will be at least a four-point favorite in the rest of its games and the best bet to win the conference title at +115 odds.

Best Bet Over/Under Win Totals

Central Florida: Over 7.0 Wins

The Knights are the newcomer best prepared to win this season, as they return a two-year starter at QB in John Rhys Plumlee and a seasoned head coach in Gus Malzahn who has brought in a slew of talented players via the transfer portal. There are a few challenges in the first half of the season, including road games at Boise State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma, but there will be opportunities to reach the eight-win mark down the stretch.

Kansas State: Over 8.0 Wins

The Wildcats are going to surprise a few people this season, even after surpassing Vegas’ expectations for them last year. KSU returns rising star QB Will Howard, an established group of offensive linemen, and several talented running backs who will offset the loss of Deuce Vaughn. The defense has some holes, particularly in the secondary, but the Cats’ schedule looks favorable, with TCU, Baylor, UCF, and Iowa State all traveling to Manhattan this season.

Oklahoma: Under 9.5 Wins

The Sooners’ final season in the Big 12 will prove to be a letdown. As a bettor, there are too many question marks about this team to realistically predict ten wins. OU lost most of its playmakers from last season and returns a defense that gave up 6.04 yards per snap in conference play, ranking 122nd nationally in total defense. It might have been unlucky in 2022, losing all five of its one-score games, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will win all of its close contests this year. There are winnable games early in the season, but the back half of the schedule looks arduous. Like Texas, Oklahoma will have a target on its back, especially against the conference’s newcomers. Unlike its rival, it doesn’t appear poised to handle that type of pressure.

Big 12 Sleeper Squad: Kansas Jayhawks

My sleeper team for the 2023 season is Kansas. The Jayhawks return 17 starters, and after taking a significant stride forward in 2022, look capable of taking another leap this year. QB Jalon Daniels leads a talented Jayhawks offense suited for the conference’s style of play. His heroics will catch at least a couple of teams by surprise, generating palpable buzz for a program that was starving for wins just a couple of seasons ago. There is plenty of skepticism about the defense after KU surrendered 35.5 PPG last year, but I’m confident the chip on its shoulder will inspire it to make a few more impactful plays in 2023.

 

To read more about all the Big 12 matchups this weekend, check out the Winners and Whiners predictions!

 

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